Post noughties revolution
All this may not matter because the main problem is, in the end, tooling. We don’t have, at present, any software to create animations and cinematic experiences like Flash can. Adobe practically has a monopoly on this front. I still can’t believe that the Macromedia takeover was approved.
Who will rise to the occasion and build some cross platform motion graphics software? The only one who has attempted this is Microsoft with Silverlight. Even though their development tools only operate on Windows they could seize the moment, however unlikely, and enable HTML5 output and gain some front-end developers fans. Switching to windows doesn’t sound very appealing to me personally, I’d rather switch to Umbutu, or catch rabies.
So the question is who will grab the chance of a lifetime and become the next Adobe? For all we know it maybe Adobe themselves. They could already be working on HTML5 only output for motion graphics. If they don’t somebody else will.